A Steady Stream of Demand

Industrial Info Resources is tracking 53 utility-scale power-generation projects, valued at more than $19.23 billion, with a target kickoff of June this year in North America. Not every one of these projects will actually begin construction in June, but this analysis narrows down to those projects more likely to kick off in the near term or some months later, resulting in a steady stream of contracting requests for proposals (RFPs).

These projects are considered to have a medium or high probability of kicking off, based on IIR Energy’s analysis of verified project metrics. Dozens more low-probability projects are excluded.

Natural Gas Power Plants Lead the Spending Cycle

According to Industrial Info Resources data, 56% of the generation (6.8 GW) is attributed to natural gas, followed by solar at 26% (3.1 GW) and wind at 17% (2.1 GW). Most of the power projects are in the power regions of ERCOT covering Texas and MISO in the Midwest. See accompanying charts here and at the end of this article.

This IIR Energy analysis focuses on capital investment and excludes maintenance. The average investment per project is $357 million. The portfolio skews toward new developments, with grassroot projects making up the largest portion.

Project ownership is broad, with several companies–such as NextEra Energy, AES Corporation, CFE – Coordinacion de Proyectos, MidAmerican Energy Company and others–as primary owners on multiple projects.

The average duration of project construction is about 18 months. Project start timelines reveal considerable kickoff slippage. About 50% of the projects (28) have experienced delays relative to their original timelines, which is commonplace in the power sector, where development is challenging. The projects by MW and electricity market are noted in the following chart.

The following is a sampling of some of the larger value projects among all 54:

• $2.1 billion, Mississippi: xAI Corporation continues preliminary engineering for a 1,900-MW natural-gas simple cycle combustion turbine unit addition.
• $1.6 billion, Texas: Entergy Texas Incorporated with contractors conducts planning and scheduling for grassroot Port Arthur 754-MW natural gas / hydrogen legend power station.
• $1.36 billion, Texas: SL Energy Power Plant I LLC with Sandow Lakes Energy Company LLC (parent), continues permitting for the grassroot 1,200-MW Sandow Lakes Ranch combined-cycle power station.
• $900 million, Texas: Panamint Capital and SOLV Energy LLC (EPC) continues planning and scheduling for the 403-MW Big Rooter West Solar and 201-MW BESS project.
• $642 million, Colorado: Xcel Energy Incorporated (owner) continues planning and scheduling for the grassroot 500-MW Towner East Wind Energy Center.
• $625 million, Iowa: Ranger Power (parent) conducts purchasing for grassroot 200-MW Hawkeye Solar Plant (Phase I), and 150-MW Hawkeye Solar (Phase II) and 75-MW BESS project.

credit: industrialinfo.com